Kevin Warsh has the entire economic world watching him today. As the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, he will announce the FOMC’s interest rate decision today at 2:00 p.m. EDT. This is a pivotal call, with Warsh caught between conflicting, powerful forces: President Trump has threatened major economic disruption if the Fed does not cut rates, economists are largely advocating for a hold, and markets have heavily priced in a 25-basis-point hike. Above all, Warsh’s priority must be institutional independence—tuning out political and external noise to follow the incoming data.

August was another example of the idea that strong markets do not require a picture-perfect backdrop. While there continues to be uncertainty around oil prices, the Fed, new tariffs affecting global trade, and interest rates that are at their highest in decades, many positive factors drove broad market indices higher.